Historical lab / 216 observed hours

A real load curve.
Your planning decision.

Explore published ERCOT load, choose a hypothetical capacity, and compare a load-reduction assumption. Every result can be downloaded and independently reproduced. No account required.

New to grid data? Why can electricity use fall during a blackout? Read the 90-second introduction →

Observed load · Hypothetical intervention. This lab works from a bundled historical archive. Capacity and load reductions are assumptions; the results are not live forecasts or measured outage savings.

01 / Set assumptionsAssumed available capacity80,000 MWUniform load reduction5.0%

A high-load summer window. Compare a fixed capacity assumption with a proportional load reduction.

02 / Compare the load curves

Where does load cross the boundary?

Hourly interval starts, America/Chicago · load in MW

Hours above assumed capacity

21 → 7

Before → after assumed reduction, out of 72 hours

Counterfactual gap energy

4,458 MWh

Before reduction: 66,683 MWh. Not expected unserved energy.

Reduction needed to clear the peak

6.39%

Algebraic minimum at this assumed capacity; feasibility is not evaluated.

03 / Keep a reproducible record

Take the calculation with you.

The report includes all 72 observations, assumptions, formulas, source links, and the source archive checksum. Downloads stay on your device. Share the report or a link to let someone reproduce your analysis.

04 / Challenge the result

What would change your decision?

Review a source value, reproduce the calculation, or identify a missing constraint. A useful critique becomes an inspectable issue and a documented product change.

Open the 10-minute review guide

Source and interpretation

ERCOT published hourly native load. This series differs from the forecast-zone load data used by the probabilistic research candidate.

Download the original ERCOT archive

Archive SHA-256: 34e7067d3273f56be42ce469e23747cff0db736d668519070ad63674c3ddecd4

Gap energy = ∑ max(0, load − assumed capacity) × 1 hour. It has no probability model. Transmission, reserves, generation outages, behavioral response, and costs are not included.

Versioned dataset Dataset checksum

Inspect all 72 hourly calculations

Summer load · August 2023; interval starts in America/Chicago
Interval start	Recorded MW	Adjusted MW	Capacity MW	Gap MW
2023-08-09T00:00:00-05:00	63,272	60,109	80,000	0
2023-08-09T01:00:00-05:00	60,569	57,541	80,000	0
2023-08-09T02:00:00-05:00	58,453	55,531	80,000	0
2023-08-09T03:00:00-05:00	57,070	54,217	80,000	0
2023-08-09T04:00:00-05:00	56,437	53,615	80,000	0
2023-08-09T05:00:00-05:00	56,972	54,123	80,000	0
2023-08-09T06:00:00-05:00	57,981	55,082	80,000	0
2023-08-09T07:00:00-05:00	58,160	55,252	80,000	0
2023-08-09T08:00:00-05:00	60,550	57,522	80,000	0
2023-08-09T09:00:00-05:00	64,439	61,217	80,000	0
2023-08-09T10:00:00-05:00	68,599	65,169	80,000	0
2023-08-09T11:00:00-05:00	73,095	69,440	80,000	0
2023-08-09T12:00:00-05:00	77,108	73,252	80,000	0
2023-08-09T13:00:00-05:00	80,552	76,524	80,000	0
2023-08-09T14:00:00-05:00	82,812	78,671	80,000	0
2023-08-09T15:00:00-05:00	83,286	79,122	80,000	0
2023-08-09T16:00:00-05:00	83,661	79,478	80,000	0
2023-08-09T17:00:00-05:00	83,736	79,549	80,000	0
2023-08-09T18:00:00-05:00	82,904	78,758	80,000	0
2023-08-09T19:00:00-05:00	80,435	76,413	80,000	0
2023-08-09T20:00:00-05:00	77,864	73,971	80,000	0
2023-08-09T21:00:00-05:00	75,509	71,734	80,000	0
2023-08-09T22:00:00-05:00	71,135	67,578	80,000	0
2023-08-09T23:00:00-05:00	67,010	63,660	80,000	0
2023-08-10T00:00:00-05:00	63,436	60,264	80,000	0
2023-08-10T01:00:00-05:00	60,816	57,775	80,000	0
2023-08-10T02:00:00-05:00	58,791	55,851	80,000	0
2023-08-10T03:00:00-05:00	57,315	54,449	80,000	0
2023-08-10T04:00:00-05:00	56,630	53,799	80,000	0
2023-08-10T05:00:00-05:00	56,821	53,980	80,000	0
2023-08-10T06:00:00-05:00	57,737	54,850	80,000	0
2023-08-10T07:00:00-05:00	57,844	54,952	80,000	0
2023-08-10T08:00:00-05:00	60,181	57,172	80,000	0
2023-08-10T09:00:00-05:00	64,164	60,955	80,000	0
2023-08-10T10:00:00-05:00	68,742	65,305	80,000	0
2023-08-10T11:00:00-05:00	73,481	69,807	80,000	0
2023-08-10T12:00:00-05:00	77,853	73,961	80,000	0
2023-08-10T13:00:00-05:00	81,355	77,287	80,000	0
2023-08-10T14:00:00-05:00	83,434	79,262	80,000	0
2023-08-10T15:00:00-05:00	84,661	80,428	80,000	428
2023-08-10T16:00:00-05:00	85,302	81,037	80,000	1,037
2023-08-10T17:00:00-05:00	85,464	81,191	80,000	1,191
2023-08-10T18:00:00-05:00	84,432	80,210	80,000	210
2023-08-10T19:00:00-05:00	81,858	77,765	80,000	0
2023-08-10T20:00:00-05:00	79,322	75,356	80,000	0
2023-08-10T21:00:00-05:00	77,348	73,481	80,000	0
2023-08-10T22:00:00-05:00	73,280	69,616	80,000	0
2023-08-10T23:00:00-05:00	69,074	65,620	80,000	0
2023-08-11T00:00:00-05:00	65,290	62,026	80,000	0
2023-08-11T01:00:00-05:00	62,336	59,219	80,000	0
2023-08-11T02:00:00-05:00	60,029	57,028	80,000	0
2023-08-11T03:00:00-05:00	58,611	55,680	80,000	0
2023-08-11T04:00:00-05:00	58,002	55,102	80,000	0
2023-08-11T05:00:00-05:00	58,325	55,409	80,000	0
2023-08-11T06:00:00-05:00	59,180	56,221	80,000	0
2023-08-11T07:00:00-05:00	59,310	56,344	80,000	0
2023-08-11T08:00:00-05:00	61,545	58,468	80,000	0
2023-08-11T09:00:00-05:00	65,368	62,100	80,000	0
2023-08-11T10:00:00-05:00	70,021	66,520	80,000	0
2023-08-11T11:00:00-05:00	74,195	70,486	80,000	0
2023-08-11T12:00:00-05:00	78,038	74,136	80,000	0
2023-08-11T13:00:00-05:00	81,590	77,511	80,000	0
2023-08-11T14:00:00-05:00	83,766	79,577	80,000	0
2023-08-11T15:00:00-05:00	84,777	80,538	80,000	538
2023-08-11T16:00:00-05:00	85,038	80,786	80,000	786
2023-08-11T17:00:00-05:00	84,492	80,268	80,000	268
2023-08-11T18:00:00-05:00	82,971	78,822	80,000	0
2023-08-11T19:00:00-05:00	80,159	76,151	80,000	0
2023-08-11T20:00:00-05:00	77,664	73,781	80,000	0
2023-08-11T21:00:00-05:00	75,592	71,813	80,000	0
2023-08-11T22:00:00-05:00	71,911	68,315	80,000	0
2023-08-11T23:00:00-05:00	67,980	64,581	80,000	0