ERCOT / Operational tail-risk intelligence
See the grid edge
before it becomes the event.
A decision surface for rare-demand tails, capacity stress and evidence-backed intervention.
TargetT+01:00Updated —
01 / Decision signal
LOWNext-hour system risk
N/A/100
AWAITING MODEL
Operator brief
The decision layer is waiting for a compatible prediction service.
No forecast is substituted or fabricated while the live service is unavailable.
02 / System boundary
P99 capacity margin
— GW
Expected / P50
—
Extreme / P99
—
Temperature
32.0°C
Wind signal
15.0 m/s
AWAITING SOURCE
03 / Uncertainty geometry
One forecast. Four confidence boundaries.
Quantile engine
Forecast boundaries unavailable
The interface will not invent a distribution.
04 / Grid context
SystemERCOT interconnection
Spatial context only. The active forecast is system-wide, not a fabricated weather-zone estimate.
05 / Controlled interventionStress the weather.
Stress the weather.
Keep the evidence.
Adjust the physical drivers, rerun the same decision pipeline and compare against the live snapshot.
Temperaturesync pending
32.0°C
Wind speedsync pending
15.0 m/s
Solar inputsync pending
800 W/m²
Load context
Estimated fallback
Capacity basis
Configured reference
Model artifact
Stub / demo
Decision contract
P50 → P99 + provenance